Da Bowl
Wednesday, January 31st, 2007Okay, dumb title. Hey, at least it’s unique. Anybody whose talked to me has heard me support the Bears against the Colts this Sunday. What you haven’t heard is me making a prediction about who’s going to win. The reason? I have absolutely no idea. The Bears are the most schizophrenic team I’ve ever seen. One week they look like they could beat the AFC Pro Bowl team. The next week they look like I could find 11 teenagers on the street to beat up on them. Every analyst has picked the Colts to win. I’m not really sure why that is. Most analysts picked the Seahawks to beat them. Every analyst picked the Saints to beat them. Yet here they are in Miami and nobody’s picking them to win again. You would think eventually one of them would learn that these guys aren’t as bad as they think. Here’s my take on the whole thing:
1) The Colts are an excellent team (as were the Saints). Their defense is a bit of an unknown. After playing terrible defense all season, some other defense showed up in the playoffs. If their defense is able to stop the run, they have an excellent chance of winning this game as Rex is probably not going to beat them. If their run defense reverts to the one that gave up over 175 yards per game during the season, the Bears excellent ground game could exploit that. That would allow Rex to have a pretty good day and lead to a Bears victory.
2) The Bears defense is also a bit of an unknown. After losing safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris, the defense struggled. These are both excellent players and their backups, while good, aren’t nearly as talented. They have been able to step it up when needed (or when they are taunted by rookies). If they play like they did last game and force turnovers, it could be a long day for Peyton, Marvin, and Joseph Addai.
3) Everybody knows Rex is a huge unknown. He led the league in 100+ quarterback ratings and in under 40 quarterback ratings (for an explanation of quarterback ratings, go here or here). He rarely gives you a middle of the road game. He’s either excellent or awful. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bears have a great chance of winning. If he plays one of those games where he’s feeling very unselfish and giving the ball to the other team, the Bears don’t stand a chance.
The Bears can pick it up when they want to. After being taunted by Reggie Bush (an extremely bone-headed move for a rookie to taunt the opposing team’s captain), the Bears outscored the Saints 23-0. The Colts are too disciplined to do something stupid like that, but the media overwhelmingly picking the Colts to win might just be all the motivation they need. We’ll see which Bears team shows up on Sunday. I’ll be rooting for the Bears, but I cut my nails so I wouldn’t bite on them!
Laterz!